The Milwaukee Bucks enter the All-Star break as the hottest team
in the NBA. They've won 12 straight games despite missing key
contributors for parts of the surge, including Khris Middleton,
Bobby Portis and, most recently, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
"There’s 25, 26, I don’t know, 28 games left and (all our
players) need to shut it down for a little bit, and then, they also
need to come back with some conditioning and ready to work and
ready for the stretch run,” Mike Budenholzer said before
Thursday's win against the Chicago Bulls (and before
Antetokounmpo injured his wrist). “Hopefully, we’ll be playing our
best basketball as the playoffs start.”
It'd be hard to notice the Bucks' injury struggles on the
scoreboard though. They still took down Chicago by double digits to
cap a perfect run since the surge began on Jan. 23. The All-Star
break presents a much-needed window to get healthy, but even in the
thick of a race for the Eastern Conference's top seed, Milwaukee is
learning that its depth of impact players might be more impressive
than most realize.
The Bucks' top-ranked defense is the backbone of its current
41-17 record. Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday deserve all of the
praise for their All-Defense-caliber seasons, and Antetokounmpo
still excels in his own right.
Since the streak began though, Milwaukee has catapulted its
offense forward. The team's offensive rating was No. 22 in the
league (112.9) before the stretch; it ranks eighth (119.8) since,
per Cleaning the Glass. Over the past four weeks, when Milwaukee
has called on ancillary scorers to step up, they have answered the
call.
The Bucks jack up a ton of threes. They're one of five NBA teams
(plus the Golden State Warriors, Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks
and Utah Jazz) who attempt more than 40% of their total shots from
behind the arc. In the last 12 games, Milwaukee has increased the
volume to more than 42 three-point attempts per game, and the shots
are collectively falling (37.5%).
Yet, only four players on the team are knocking down above 36%
of those tries during the streak Portis' one game
notwithstanding): Jevon Carter, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton and
AJ Green.
Carter deserves a spotlight as perhaps the breakout player of
the season for his team. Milwaukee scooped up Carter late last
February after he was waived by the Brooklyn Nets, and played him
sparingly in the 2022 postseason. This year, the 27-year-old has
earned a career-high 22.5 minutes per game and responded with his
most impactful pro season, which includes a 41.7% three-point clip
that has ballooned to 55.1% during this winning streak.
Carter has been all over the map as a shooter during his career,
and he's finally blended volume, efficiency and shot variation
together. He's hitting 41.2% of his threes when he needs less than
two seconds to generate a shot, per PBP Stats.
More impressively? Carter has attempted 70 self-created threes
this year, defined by PBP Stats as a shot that took more than two
seconds to generate. Among 83 players who have tried 50 or more
such shots this season, Carter's 42.9% shooting percentage ranks
fourth behind only Malcolm Brogdon, Steph Curry and Desmond
Bane.
That's stunning company to be in for a journeyman player whose
calling card has historically been his defense. Milwaukee needs
more individual creators; it's one reason Nekias Duncan mentioned
Russell Westbrook as a sneaky-interesting buyout option
(which I agree with, for the record). Carter is basically the
opposite of Westbrook as a creator — Carter rarely gets to the rim
by himself — but having a perimeter shot-maker with fewer peaks and
valleys compared to, say, Holiday, is valuable.
And a quick sidebar on Carter: His defense has still fit right
in. The 6-foot-1-inch combo guard is swiping 1.6 steals per 75
possessions, placing him in the 92nd percentile at his position,
per BBall Index. He's defending players in BBall Index's highest
usage tier on 32% of his possessions (99th percentile) and grading
out highly both on tape and in the spreadsheet. Applaud this
man.
Back to the shooting — Allen, one of two Bucks players to start
more than 50 games this season, has drawn ire for an apparent
reluctance to bomb away when shooting is primarily why he starts.
During the 12-game winning streak, he's increased his three-point
volume by about one attempt per game while still converting at an
elite rate. It's nothing substantial, but hopefully a sign of
progress.
Connaughton, meanwhile, had shaken off a ghastly shooting start
prior to missing Thursday's win with a calf injury. The 30-year-old
was shooting just 29.6% beyond the arc by the end of 2022. Since
the calendar flipped, he's up to 39.4%, including 44.1% during the
current streak.
Though he pops in and out of the rotation, Green also deserves a
shout-out. The undrafted rookie from Northern Iowa knocked down 5
of 7 triples Thursday night, and has hit half of his threes
attempted in the last 12 games despite wild playing time
inconsistencies. Green is an unabashed gunner, and microwave
movement shooting is a fun skill to have in the reserve.
With these four mostly healthy and cooking, life has become a
little easier for Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak is putting up a
whopping 34.3 points, 12.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game during
the winning streak, even including his early exit against
Chicago.
Antetokounmpo has dished out 3.8 three-point assists per game in
that span. It's a rate that ranks second only behind Trae Young,
and it's a full assist more than his rate prior to Jan.
23.
It's fitting an assist like this put Antetokounmpo atop the
franchise leaderboard. He draws three defenders to him in
transition with his downhill force and makes a high-level pass to
the corner. With sharpshooters like Carter, Allen, Connaughton and
Green around him, Antetokounmpo has options when he drives into
traffic. The same goes for Holiday and Middleton.
The Bucks have the third-best odds to win the NBA
championship and already deserve their slice of respect in the
title conversation. But over the last 12 games, they continue to
click offensive puzzle pieces into place even as they battle
injuries.
Milwaukee goes from imposing to straight-up dangerous with a
supporting cast firing on all cylinders.